Indian demand for phosphoric acid imports is due to remain firm despite the recent hike in prices. This is because domestic DAP production using phosphoric acid as a raw material remains far more cost-effective than soaring DAP import prices while the country struggles to rebuild its DAP inventories.
Jordanian producer JPMC and Senegalese producer Indorama have agreed a price of $1,258/t P2O5 cfr India with 30 days credit for third-quarter phosphoric acid deliveries with importers Coromandel and Iffco, respectively.
The price is up by $105/t P2O5 from the second quarter but still keeps domestic production costs well below import costs. Without the additional government support for producers announced earlier this year, the rise would have pushed domestic producers' margins further into the red.
With phosphoric acid at $1,258/t P2O5 cfr and ammonia at $350/t cfr, Indian DAP producers' costs are estimated in the range $715-720/t ex-works in bulk. This means they would face negative margins of around $75/t on the current maximum retail price (MRP) of 27,000 rupees/t, the nutrient-based subsidy (NBS) for DAP of Rs27,799/t for the April-September kharif season and the additional Rs3,500/t paid by the government to cover other costs — which brings the DAP subsidy to Rs31,299/t — and on current exchange rates.
Attempting to reverse the erosion of national DAP inventories, the Indian government announced additional support for importers and producers at the beginning of May. The support includes making up for losses and ensuring a 4pc margin on the net MRP.
This has allowed importers to pay higher to secure limited global tonnes, in turn allowing DAP import prices to soar by around $100/t since the additional support was announced. But heavy rainfall is spurring farmers' demand for phosphates and India's DAP stocks remain well below typical levels, estimated at around 1.56mn t at the end of June.
DAP importers buying at $795/t cfr would make a loss of around $200/t without the additional support. The Rs27,000/t DAP MRP and Rs31,299/t subsidy payments would give a breakeven import price in the range $600-605/t cfr.
