Nigerian imports of European gasoline fell to a record low in June, according to Kpler tracking data, as rising output from the country's 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery sharply reduced demand for the product from the EU, UK and Norway.
The drop in Nigerian buying pulled overall west African imports of European gasoline to a four-month low of 926,000t, down from 1.315mn t in May and 20pc lower year-on-year. Nigeria, long the region's largest gasoline importer, slipped behind Togo last month as the Dangote refinery hit its highest monthly run rate since coming online.
The country is approaching a turning point in its gasoline trade balance. June arrivals into Nigeria from Europe fell by 56pc on the month to 231,000t — the lowest recorded by Kpler. It also imported 28,000t from offshore Lome and 12,000t from Houston, leaving a total of 271,000t.
At the same time, Dangote loaded a record 252,000t of gasoline for export last month. This included 90,000t aboard the Pis Kerinci to Sohar, Oman; 89,000t on the Hafnia Larissa to Pasir Gudang, Malaysia; 35,000t on the Sabaek to Abidjan, Ivory Coast; and a further 39,000t aboard the Sabaek, which has yet to discharge.
The country could be on the verge of flipping to net exporter status, given the Dangote refinery has "extra plant capacity to produce gasoline", according to Dangote Group executive director Edwin Devakumar. The plant's naphtha hydrotreating unit has "flexibility to achieve additional production", and Dangote has recently begun buying naphtha to support gasoline output, he said.
The fall in Nigerian demand for gasoline imports, combined with weaker-than-expected US consumption, is raising concerns over outlet options for European gasoline this summer, a European trader told Argus. Europe remains a large net exporter of the product.
Benchmark non-oxy gasoline barge cracks to front-month Ice Brent crude futures averaged $14.73/bl between 1–4 July, broadly steady on the year and slightly up from $14.62/bl in the same period of 2024.
