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Baghdad, Erbil reach deal on Ceyhan oil exports
Baghdad, Erbil reach deal on Ceyhan oil exports
Dubai, 17 July (Argus) — Iraq's federal government and its semi-autonomous Kurdistan region reached an agreement on allocation of oil production volumes, paving the way toward the restart of northern Iraqi crude exports through Turkey's Ceyhan port The terms of the agreement, which Iraq's government approved on Thursday, will require the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) to immediately begin delivering at least 230,000 b/d of oil to Iraqi state marketer Somo for exports. In exchange, Baghdad will pay $16/bl — in cash or in kind — under the amended budget law, "as an advance to the Kurdish government," Iraq's government said. The delivered volumes are expected to increase at a later stage. The federal government said it will transfer the salaries of KRG public servants for the month of May, "after the federal ministry of oil or Somo confirms receipt of the full oil quantity — currently 230,000 b/d — at the Ceyhan port". The $16/bl figure referenced in the agreement reflects what the amended budget law stipulates foreign oil companies operating in the semi-autonomous Kurdish region are to be paid for production and transportation costs. Baghdad also explicitly acknowledged KRG's estimate of the total oil production in the region, at 280,000 b/d. As part of the deal, 50,000 b/d will be allocated for the Kurdistan region's domestic use, with the KRG covering the associated costs of production and transfer. Net revenues from those volumes will be transferred to the federal treasury. A source within the international oil companies (IOCs) operating in Kurdistan told Argus that the firms are concerned about being compensated for the 50,000 b/d allocated for local consumption. "IOCs still need a clear plan for how they will receive payment for the $1bn in arrears," the source said, adding, "the KRG and the federal government need to swiftly agree on the scope of work for the independent consultant." The budget law amendment passed in January stipulates that an international consulting firm is to be tasked with auditing the costs of production and transportation in the Kurdistan region. Baghdad and Erbil have yet to agree on the firm or its scope of work. The IOCs refuse to share with Iraq's oil ministry the existing contracts they have signed with the KRG. Meanwhile, the deal also suggests that Baghdad may supply Erbil with up to 15,000 b/d of refined products, if needed, based on a joint committee's assessment of the Kurdish region's needs. The assessment is due within two weeks. The KRG is also expected to transfer an estimated 120 billion Iraqi dinars ($92mn) in non-oil revenues for May to the federal Ministry of Finance. The Iraq-KRG deal is a "milestone toward the resumption of oil exports through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline," said the Association of the Petroleum Industry of Kurdistan, an industry group representing foreign oil companies operating in Iraqi Kurdistan. The group said its members "anticipate additional discussions with [federal government] and KRG officials to establish written agreements prior to resuming exports." Negotiations between Baghdad and Erbil reached a conclusion just as drone attacks in Iraqi Kurdistan led foreign oil companies operating in the region to shut in more than 200,000 b/d of production as of Wednesday. No group has claimed responsibility for the attacks. In the first public accusation voiced by a senior Kurdish official, former Iraqi foreign minister Hoshyar Zebari on Wednesday blamed the attacks on Wilaya-aligned factions — a group of Iran-backed militias. By Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
New tariff threat could disrupt Mexico GDP outlook
New tariff threat could disrupt Mexico GDP outlook
Mexico City, 16 July (Argus) — Mexico's association of finance executives IMEF held its 2025 GDP growth forecast steady at 0.1pc in its July survey but warned the outlook could deteriorate if the US raises tariffs to 30pc. The survey of 43 analysts maintained projections for year-end inflation at 4pc and for the central bank's benchmark interest rate to fall from 8pc to 7.5pc by the end of 2025. The sharpest variation came in formal employment, after Mexico's social security administration IMSS reported a net loss of 139,444 formal jobs in the second quarter. IMEF cut its 2025 job creation forecast to 160,000 from 190,000 in June — the seventh and largest downgrade this year. Job losses increased in April, May and June, "a situation not seen since the pandemic in 2020," IMEF said. "If this trend is not reversed, the net number of formal jobs could fall to zero by year-end." "It is still too early to call it a recession, but the rise in job losses is worrying," said Victor Herrera, head of economic studies at IMEF. "The next risk we face is in auto plants. Some halted production after the 25pc US tariff was imposed in April. They did not lay off workers right away — they sent them home with half pay. But if this is not resolved in the next 60-90 days, layoffs will follow." The July survey was conducted before US president Donald Trump said on 12 July he would raise tariffs on Mexican goods from 25pc to 30pc starting 1 August. "What we have seen in the past is that when the deadline comes, the tariffs are postponed or canceled," Herrera said. "Hopefully, that happens again. If not, you can expect GDP forecasts to shift into contraction territory." While the full impact would vary by sector, Herrera said the effective average tariff rate would rise from 4pc to 15pc, with most exports either exempt or subject to reduced rates under regional content rules. But 8–10pc of auto exports would face the full 30pc duty. IMEF expects the peso to end 2025 at Ps20.1/$1, stronger than the Ps20.45/$1 estimate in June. But the group warned that rising Japanese rates — which influence currency carry trades — and falling Mexican rates could put renewed pressure on the peso once the dollar rebounds. For 2026, the GDP growth forecast dropped to 1.3pc from 1.5pc, while the peso is seen ending that year at Ps20.75/$1, slightly stronger than the previous Ps20.90/$1 forecast. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Vessel identified in Venezuelan oil sanctions busting
Vessel identified in Venezuelan oil sanctions busting
Caracas, 16 July (Argus) — A watchdog group said it has identified 15 oil tankers used to circumvent US sanctions against crude sales from Venezuela. The vessels take part in a system of clandestine ship-to-ship transfers off the Venezuelan coast at night, according to the report from the Venezuelan chapter of Transparency International, which is operating in exile. The transfers happen on a regular basis, with ship transponders turned off and with no oversight or safety monitoring from port authorities. Many of the ships that enter the sanctions-busting trade were inactive or soon-to-be scrapped — such as the Aframax Cape Balder , which was once listed as inactive and set to be scrapped, according to the report. Many of the ships also change names when starting in the sanctioned shipments realm, such as the Panamax Nabiin , which was formerly known as Euroforce , according to the report. Most of the cargoes end up in China where they are rebranded as Brazilian, Malay or Singaporean crude, according to the report. Of the 15 vessels identified, five are registered in the Comoro Islands, four in Panama, and the rest in other locations. They include seven very large crude carriers (VLCCs), seven Panamax and one Aframax. Aside from the financial incentives, Venezuela relies so heavily on the crude smuggling schemes to deal with a shortage of oil storage, according to the report. Since the first round of US sanctions on the country started in 2019, storage space in the country's Bajo Grande and Ule sites has tightened significantly and has at times forced a reduction in crude production. The other ships named in the report include: the VLCC Varada Blessing; Panamax Jacinda; Panamax Petrogaruda; VLCC Vieira; VLCC Longevo; VLCC Alice; Panamax Sinar G; VLCC Champ; VLCC Latitude; VLCC Ekta; Panamax Colon; Panamax Tailwinds; Panamax Veronica. By Carlos Camacho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Oil firms in Iraq Kurdistan shut in 200,000 b/d: Update
Oil firms in Iraq Kurdistan shut in 200,000 b/d: Update
Updates with comments from the US State Department Washington, 16 July (Argus) — Foreign oil companies operating in Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdistan region have shut in more than 200,000 b/d of production following drone attacks on key oil fields, an industry group representing them said on Wednesday. Operators are assessing damage to facilities and even firms that have not taken direct hits have taken fields off line, according to the Association of the Petroleum Industry of Kurdistan (Apikur), an industry body representing eight foreign oil companies operating in the region. The group called on the federal government of Iraq and on the Kurdistan regional government to take additional measures to ensure the safety of staff and facilities. Individual members of Apikur, including Norwegian independent DNO and UK-listed Gulf Keystone, already reported shutting in production, in some cases as a precautionary measure. The latest attacks on Wednesday targeted the Tawke, Peshkabir, and Ain Sifni oil fields, according to the Kurdistan region's Ministry of Natural Resources. In the previous two days, attacks targeted the Sarsang field operated by US independent HKN Energy, US firm Hunt Oil's facility in Baadre and the Khurmala field, according to the local authorities. No group has claimed responsibility for the attacks. But in the first public accusation from a senior Kurdistan official, former Iraqi foreign minister Hoshyar Zebari on Wednesday blamed the attacks on Wilaya-aligned factions — a militia group loyal to Iran. Deputy chief of staff to Kurdistan regional prime minister, Aziz Ahmad, via a social media post Wednesday, appealed to the US administration to enable the region "to defend ourselves", noting that the attacks targeted fields operated by two US companies. "Still no call from [US secretary of state Marco Rubio]," Ahmad posted. "We need more than words." The State Department called the attacks "unacceptable", adding that "we've expressed our dismay and our problem with them." The attacks come as tensions between the Kurdistan region and Baghdad continue over the federal government's halt of salary payments to public servants and the prolonged suspension of oil exports through Turkey's Ceyhan port. But both sides were reportedly close to a breakthrough in negotiations that could allow for the resumption of exports and a resolution to the salary dispute. By Haik Gugarats and Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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